I think the Rays are going to dethrone the Red Sox in a hard fought 6 game series. Here are my main reason for this prediction and two counter-arguments that go in the Sox favor.
1. Josh Beckett does not seem to be healthy and sharp. If he can't dominate the way he has in the past, the Red Sox biggest advantage is neutralized. Having watched him in the ALDS, I am not sure what he can bring to the table in this series. He did not look good in game 3, the only game the Sox lost.
2. Eventually, the absence of Manny Ramirez' bat in the Sox lineup will catch up to them.
3. Unlike last year, Okijima cannot be counted on to get big outs in the 8th. I've also heard he has struggled this year against the teams that are most familiar with them, i.e. division rivals. Tampa knows what he has to offer and will probably hit him.
4. Mike Lowell is not on the roster. Missing last year's World Series MVP is not good.
5. Rays home field advantage. Tampa is dominant at home. That one extra game at home could be the difference.
Factors that lean the Sox way.
1. The Sox have so much experience and come in as the defending champions. Contrast this to the extreme youth of Tampa.
2. Any team with a closer as good as Papelbon has a great shot of advancing to the World Series.
I think this is going to be a great series. Oodles of talent on both sides, a genuine dislike of each other by both teams, and the highest of stakes. I am looking forward to it.
2 comments:
Wow. I hope you're not right about this one... looks like you may get this one right on the nose, though! I hope not!!
HA! You were wrong.... unfortunately. It would have been better, then we wouldn't have had to stay up on Sunday night, and we would have been 24 hours closer to the end of the Varitek free agent speculation.
Crappers.
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