I think the Rays are going to dethrone the Red Sox in a hard fought 6 game series. Here are my main reason for this prediction and two counter-arguments that go in the Sox favor.
1. Josh Beckett does not seem to be healthy and sharp. If he can't dominate the way he has in the past, the Red Sox biggest advantage is neutralized. Having watched him in the ALDS, I am not sure what he can bring to the table in this series. He did not look good in game 3, the only game the Sox lost.
2. Eventually, the absence of Manny Ramirez' bat in the Sox lineup will catch up to them.
3. Unlike last year, Okijima cannot be counted on to get big outs in the 8th. I've also heard he has struggled this year against the teams that are most familiar with them, i.e. division rivals. Tampa knows what he has to offer and will probably hit him.
4. Mike Lowell is not on the roster. Missing last year's World Series MVP is not good.
5. Rays home field advantage. Tampa is dominant at home. That one extra game at home could be the difference.
Factors that lean the Sox way.
1. The Sox have so much experience and come in as the defending champions. Contrast this to the extreme youth of Tampa.
2. Any team with a closer as good as Papelbon has a great shot of advancing to the World Series.
I think this is going to be a great series. Oodles of talent on both sides, a genuine dislike of each other by both teams, and the highest of stakes. I am looking forward to it.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Dodgers in 7
Details to follow on this prediction but I wanted to get it out there before the start of the series. I think this series will be dominated by the home team but that the Dodgers will find a way to get it done when the pressure is really on.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Nervous Met Fan
Its 5:15 in the morning. I'm supposed to be sound asleep, but its just not happening. I'm 36 years old, and I've come a long way from my most intense days as Mets fan, but I feel I've regressed overnight. I'm nervous and once I woke a few before 5 AM there was no turning back. I was up for good. I don't have the highest hopes for this flawed Mets team, but I am certainly not ready to shut it down today. Get me to tomorrow is my "one day at a time" goal for today.
Do I think its going to happen? I am not sure.
This is the third time in the last 10 seasons that the Mets have gone into the last day of the season in a flat-footed tie for a playoff spot. In 1999, they beat the Pirates and played the Reds the following night in a one game playoff. Al Leiter's pitching gem propelled them into the playoffs and they made a really good run, going down in game 6 of the NLCS. But, its last year, of course, that is front and center in every Mets fans' mind. Like 55,000 or so other people I found my way into Shea Stadium last year for the season finale. Before I had even settled in to my seat, it was 7-0 Marlins and the team's chances were toast. It was tough to swallow, and I can't help but fear something like it happening again.
Ollie Perez is taking the hill today. A brilliant but confounding talent, he'll be going on 3 days rest instead of the normal 4. Its always such a wild card (no pun intended) when you have to throw a pitcher on short rest. Yesterday could not have gone better. Johan Santana outperformed everyone's expectations and tossed a complete game shut out on 3 days rest. One of the great pitching performances in Mets' history. I won't attempt to predict what Ollie Perez will do, I only say that it is a source of my uncertainty about today. There are several factors that indicate he'll do well.
1) He's a big game pitcher. Mets fans know that Ollie steps up when the pressure is on. Think about game 7 of the 2006 NLCS or some of his starts against the Yankees and Phils this year.
2) He's pitched well on 3 days rest before. That game 7 in 2006 was on short rest. He went six strong innings that night.
3) He did not throw a lot of pitches in his last start. (Of course, the reason for this, was that he did not pitch well, and got replaced early in the game.)
4) A win today could net him an extra 20 million dollars or more in his pending free agency this off-season. I'm sure Scott Boras has reminded him of this. Will he use that as motivation? Perhaps. (Thanks to my sister Mary for bringing this up to me.)
5) Perez is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five starts versus the Marlins this season.
6) Crowd support. The Mets fan will come ready to make a lot of noise today, and Ollie has to try to channel that energy into a little added adrenaline to get him through the start. (Thanks again Mary.)
Of course, no matter how well Perez pitches today, the Mets are going to have to score some runs and more than likely get some big outs from their beleaguered bullpen. Several of the Mets best hitters have good numbers against Scott Olsen, the Marlins starter.
So, analysis aside, the Mets gotta find a way to get a win today and then hope for a little help today in Milwaukee, where interestingly enough, CC Sabathia will also be taking the hill on 3 days rest. The Brewers have worked him so hard this year, and will be leaning on him once again on this ever important Sunday. Mets fans best hopes lie in CC not having his best stuff today.
A one final note about the games today. The Mets have scheduled the ceremonies to celebrate the closing of Shea Stadium for AFTER the game. A curious choice, made more so by the fact that no one knows what the mood is going to be like after today's game nor do we know what inning it will be in Milwaukee when the Mets game ends. Suffice it to say that it could be joyous, miserable, or undetermined and tense as 55,000 plus, keep two eyes on the Brewers game and no eyes on the elaborate ceremony. I hope the Mets have a plan to show the Brewers game on the big screen and are smart enough as a franchise to delay the ceremony long enough so that it can be given full attention. Win, lose, or draw.
Do I think its going to happen? I am not sure.
This is the third time in the last 10 seasons that the Mets have gone into the last day of the season in a flat-footed tie for a playoff spot. In 1999, they beat the Pirates and played the Reds the following night in a one game playoff. Al Leiter's pitching gem propelled them into the playoffs and they made a really good run, going down in game 6 of the NLCS. But, its last year, of course, that is front and center in every Mets fans' mind. Like 55,000 or so other people I found my way into Shea Stadium last year for the season finale. Before I had even settled in to my seat, it was 7-0 Marlins and the team's chances were toast. It was tough to swallow, and I can't help but fear something like it happening again.
Ollie Perez is taking the hill today. A brilliant but confounding talent, he'll be going on 3 days rest instead of the normal 4. Its always such a wild card (no pun intended) when you have to throw a pitcher on short rest. Yesterday could not have gone better. Johan Santana outperformed everyone's expectations and tossed a complete game shut out on 3 days rest. One of the great pitching performances in Mets' history. I won't attempt to predict what Ollie Perez will do, I only say that it is a source of my uncertainty about today. There are several factors that indicate he'll do well.
1) He's a big game pitcher. Mets fans know that Ollie steps up when the pressure is on. Think about game 7 of the 2006 NLCS or some of his starts against the Yankees and Phils this year.
2) He's pitched well on 3 days rest before. That game 7 in 2006 was on short rest. He went six strong innings that night.
3) He did not throw a lot of pitches in his last start. (Of course, the reason for this, was that he did not pitch well, and got replaced early in the game.)
4) A win today could net him an extra 20 million dollars or more in his pending free agency this off-season. I'm sure Scott Boras has reminded him of this. Will he use that as motivation? Perhaps. (Thanks to my sister Mary for bringing this up to me.)
5) Perez is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five starts versus the Marlins this season.
6) Crowd support. The Mets fan will come ready to make a lot of noise today, and Ollie has to try to channel that energy into a little added adrenaline to get him through the start. (Thanks again Mary.)
Of course, no matter how well Perez pitches today, the Mets are going to have to score some runs and more than likely get some big outs from their beleaguered bullpen. Several of the Mets best hitters have good numbers against Scott Olsen, the Marlins starter.
So, analysis aside, the Mets gotta find a way to get a win today and then hope for a little help today in Milwaukee, where interestingly enough, CC Sabathia will also be taking the hill on 3 days rest. The Brewers have worked him so hard this year, and will be leaning on him once again on this ever important Sunday. Mets fans best hopes lie in CC not having his best stuff today.
A one final note about the games today. The Mets have scheduled the ceremonies to celebrate the closing of Shea Stadium for AFTER the game. A curious choice, made more so by the fact that no one knows what the mood is going to be like after today's game nor do we know what inning it will be in Milwaukee when the Mets game ends. Suffice it to say that it could be joyous, miserable, or undetermined and tense as 55,000 plus, keep two eyes on the Brewers game and no eyes on the elaborate ceremony. I hope the Mets have a plan to show the Brewers game on the big screen and are smart enough as a franchise to delay the ceremony long enough so that it can be given full attention. Win, lose, or draw.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Running Tally
Thanks to the absolute brilliant pitching of Johan Santana, the Mets go into the final game of the regular season tomorrow with a record of:
7 Wins
9 Losses
...in the first 16 games of the final strech of 17 games.
7 Wins
9 Losses
...in the first 16 games of the final strech of 17 games.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Much Needed Win
Mets won 6-2 tonight. They got exactly what they needed from Johan Santana, a dominant 8 inning performance that featured a lot of pitches (a career high 125) strikeouts (10) and some clutch at bats and hustle on the base paths. It also featured a lucky break that fueled their game tying 2 run rally. Who among us has ever seen a play like that, where Santana's ground ball caught up to his broken bat, bouncing off it at a very opportune time and leading to Santana reaching first base safely. I am betting that no one has. Fitting that in a season where bats seem to break once an at-bat, a play like that would transpire in such a big spot during the pennant race.
So, 12 games into their final 17 games, the Mets now have a win loss record in those 12 games of:
5 Wins
7 Losses
So, 12 games into their final 17 games, the Mets now have a win loss record in those 12 games of:
5 Wins
7 Losses
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Worse Loss
I described to a friend of mine today that a two-run Met lead is really more like a one run lead at best. "Or", he said, "Is it sort of like they are actually DOWN two runs?" I said that things weren't that bad, but when the Mets 4-2 7th inning lead became a 7-4 deficit by the end of the 8th, I am all too unhappy to concede that my friend was probably right. Another bullpen disaster had crushed the Mets today, reducing their lead of the the Brewers to 1.5 games for the National League wild card. A two run homer by Carlos Delgado in the top of the 9th cut the Braves lead to 7-6 but went for naught when Carlos Beltran and Damion Easley struck out back to back to end the game. So, 10 games into their final 17, the Mets record in those games now stands at:
4 Wins
6 Losses
Mets head home now, staring at 7 tough games to close out the season. 4 against the Cubs starting Monday night and finishing up with a weekend season against the Marlins. Brewers will be hosting the woeful Pirates and then finish with the Cubs. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs set up their pitching rotation for each series and how well they play as they bide their time before the first round of the playoffs. Mets best chance at hanging on and making the playoffs is that the Brewers are playing even worse than they are now. That could change early this week, though, and that would spell big trouble for the Metropolitans.
Good grief.
4 Wins
6 Losses
Mets head home now, staring at 7 tough games to close out the season. 4 against the Cubs starting Monday night and finishing up with a weekend season against the Marlins. Brewers will be hosting the woeful Pirates and then finish with the Cubs. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs set up their pitching rotation for each series and how well they play as they bide their time before the first round of the playoffs. Mets best chance at hanging on and making the playoffs is that the Brewers are playing even worse than they are now. That could change early this week, though, and that would spell big trouble for the Metropolitans.
Good grief.
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